Predictions
i wasn't confident enough to say resolutions :}
Resolutions AKA Predictions
Predictions are FUN. Most years I do these and probably have the same mixed success as the rest of you. Many of us call them resolutions but based on past performance, I am going to stick with predictions as that seems much less certain. This year, I am going to share some of them — I may have to delete this post later in the year :) There is a futurist named Ray Kurzweil who has made lots of controversial predictions. He does his in book form and his conjecture is there for all the world to see in a series of books over the last twenty years. Ray is one of those fellas who talks about “The Singularity” a lot.
Singularity has become a focus for many, perhaps anxiety-driven. Here is a definition
a hypothetical moment in time when artificial intelligence and other technologies have become so advanced that humanity undergoes a dramatic and irreversible change.
"maybe the singularity just happened, and we didn't notice"
In a fast-changing world, there are SO MANY possibilities and we can easily get enamored with what seems to be “the next big thing”. This will be a bit of a grab bag. Some things I will try. Some things I think might happen and of course, some are SWAGs. SWAGs are “Scientific Wild-Ass Guesses. For those who watched “The Jetsons” in our youth, where are the flying cars?
Acolytes of the latest sage, Elon Musk are huddled talking about (1) settlements on Mars, (2) the end of civilization due to low birthrates??? (world population has nearly trebled in my lifetime and I’m not THAT old). Aficionados of fusion power are sure that our quest that started in the 1930s is “just around the bend”. I will go out on a limb to start and assume that the end of 2023 will come and go and we will not be appreciably closer to flying cars, eating potatoes with Matt Damon on Mars, or fusing hydrogen atoms in a neighborhood near you. I will also go out on a limb and there will be 5-6 billion underemployed people for Mr. Musk to discover in his too-low of birthrate world.
Looking Over Your Shoulder In The Mirror
For me, the most sage advice I’ve received has led me to embrace an understanding that the past and the future are not the best places for our focus. Rather it is better to focus on the present, be present, and take advantage of what each day can offer us. Here is a small excerpt of my Christmas message to my greater family. The rest you are not entitled to see the rest and are likely not interested :)
“You can't change yesterday or control tomorrow so I hope you all savor today.“
Follicle Obsession
So what do these two men (Kurzweil and Musk) have in common? Men of a certain age seem to obsess over their hair. I’ve begun to foster a dead zone in the rear. It’s not too prominent although I lack vision in the rear. When my children began pointing out the area that was thinning, I took to describing it as a whorl. When the color of your hair or lack thereof becomes a focus, it seems to accompany anxiety or perhaps a denial of where you lie on the timeline. Two of our more forceful prognosticators, Mr. Kurzweil and Musk seem to have focused on their hair in their journey to keep aging at bay. They are (1) sure the transformation of the world is upon us, (2) are programmed to shout constantly they have it all figured out, and (3) want to have shockingly colorized hair with a full mane. For me, it is off-putting when someone in my tennis circle decides on a weekend to take a stand against their hair. There were more photos of Mr. Musk than Kurzweil so I chose the path of least resistance below. I will leave it to each of you to explore the wild color transformation Mr. Kurzweil is now pursuing. His commitment to turning back time is decidedly more serious than anyone else I’ve heard of. I believe he is taking HUNDREDS of supplements of one sort or another as he is hurtling full speed toward the Singularity he doggedly believes could arrive in 2042. Mr. Musk, like a carnival barker is imploring us to pay attention to his masterful plan to colonize Mars. He seems cocksure our birthrates are inadequate, perhaps the change of scenery to Mars will change things?
My bet for 2042 is based on past experience. I would rather wager there will be now five-year-old Lexuses or Honda Pilots made in 2017 still soldiering along on the road. Maybe someone will pass them in a flying car but I’m betting against that. While they posit themselves as futurists, it seems they spend a fair amount of time evaluating the past and trying to cloak its marks with dyes and transplants.
So what is the point of this seemingly random array of thoughts? I think that as people age, it is (1) their angst regarding mortality, and (2) narcissism to assume THEIR lifespan shall encompass a shift change of epic proportion. In this Newsletter, I profile some of the wonderful breakthroughs that are unfolding at a rapid pace. I think my outlook differs though as I believe these discoveries significant, what will always matter most is the human condition. Technological change can continue to accelerate. Try to get someone to try a food they last tried (and hated) in their youth. The human condition will always ride the brakes on any change.
Our Slow Evolving Biochemical Minds Are Riding the Brakes of Progress
Utterly RIDICULOUS things do not fade into obscurity. Mankind, long after some idea fades from any semblance of reality, still clings to absurdities of all sorts. Just because we discover something that is inherently a better solution, the human condition will ride the brakes and slow even the very best of ideas. What do I mean by this? History has shown that we stick with bad ideas and even utter falsehoods long after they’ve outlived their usefulness. I think this is due to the LIMITATIONS of (1) how our minds work, (2) the painful conflict created when hard-won beliefs are shown to be highly unlikely, (3) how what we cling to has so much to do with belonging ala tribal rather than believing ala contemplation and intellect.
In the past year, an important person in my life shared a thesis that they do not have any faith in expertise or specialization. Rather, it is best personified with the thought that no one really knows anything! When I first heard it, it took me off-guard as had just finished a book titled “The Death of Expertise”. While the book tried to explain exactly what I was hearing, it just didn’t make sense to me or perhaps I did not want to believe it. Now, I understand. I think that in the age of specialization, it is impossible to “know everything”. Rather, in a MORE COMPLEX THAN EVER world, there is more need for TRUST than ever before.
The Participation Award
Today I have a FUN THOUGHT EXPERIMENT and I will play. I CHALLENGE EACH OF YOU to list three things you accepted as reasonable as a youngster that now seems utterly ridiculous. Since this is my first post of the New Year, I ask each of you to ADD A COMMENT with your 1/2/3. For studious readers of my Newsletter, my three may not be the first time you heard it. While I don’t expect you to do the same, my editorial comment on the thought appears in brackets.
(1) Eating fried calves liver is a great way to fortify yourself with the iron you need to be healthy. [There are lots of easier ways to get a little more iron]
(2) As a person who began driving in the late 1970s after the first OPEC oil shock, people will drive small cars as their primary transportation. [The average American seems to dream of driving a dump truck with leather seats as their daily transport nowadays.]
(3) The story of Noah’s Ark. While I retain many religious tenets, some of the stories of the Old Testament are simply too fantastic. [A 600-year-old ship captain building a boat and hosting the world’s animals is a difficult story. Having raised three boys and seeing how much they could eat on a Friday night makes me realize that as wild as the story of the animals was, the provisions required and the daily cleanup makes it COMPLETELY unreasonable. Finally, from my earliest days of chemistry education, the amount of water required for all these animals is a real problem since a pint weighs a pound, the world around. I’ve always given Noah the benefit of the doubt and assumed he stuck to land animals only.]
Mark’s 2023 Predictions & Resolutions
Now it is finally time for predictions and resolutions. A writing habit will be indispensable. I will check in each quarter and share how these half-baked plans are proceeding.
WRITING — I plan to continue writing this year. I have a suspicion, based upon my first off and on fifteen months that I will change my schedule and frequency AT LEAST ONCE. As a minimum, I want to publish at least fifty times in the new year.
EXERCISE ACTIVITIES — My goal is to diversify what I do for exercise. Being kind to myself, the plan is to foster a habit to add at least 2 new activities I don’t presently do. Some possibilities include (1) becoming a regular swimmer (2) run somewhere besides my treadmill and earn a single free t-shirt for running a race of some sort (3) get my bicycle in shape and commit to its use. If this becomes something for me, consider an electric assist so I can explore a greater perimeter around me and use it to get to work at the non-profit (4) Give Pickleball a try as a diversification beyond tennis. (5) Make at least four interesting hikes this next year.
CREATIVE ACTIVITIES — Expanding the creative things I do. I am shooting to make two of these a reality. Might turn out to be things other than these possibilities. (1) Successfully pivot my reading genres. Since I know I will read 12 non-fiction history books, this means I will try to match that output in either scifi or some other alley of fiction. (2) Find some way to volunteer or join a new club to explore new things. (3) A number of years ago I tried adult paint-by-number. It is time to try again and attempt to finish at least one painting in the new year.
RECOMMIT TO FAMILY — I am happiest when I am around my family. I will try this year to FOCUS on making our time together (1) more frequent (2) more fun, and (3) more memorable.
EXPLORE NEW CIRCLES — Our circles, be they family, friends, competitors or associates are the places we get to explore change and grow. I hope that in the course of my 2023 journey, I stop a few times, become enamored, and cannot resist redirecting some of my time to new things. I think I will end 2023 happier than I am today if I can manage to do so some of the above and give it some attention.
I hope that each of you encounters a wonderful 2023 along the way. I further hope that whatever your thoughts and plans today, the year ahead is better than you imagined and not near as dicey as you feared.
The Poll & Music
Music about the new year and resolutions reinforce the positive outlook required for any of this to work, at least in my case. The song that says it best for me is the Beatle’s classic.
What’s Next
For now, and for a while, it is fun to make my next post a surprise since this is now a once-a-week affair. I have a series of posts in the can, it is just a matter of which one suits my mood for next week.
1. I loved chocolate growing up, as I do now. When I was 16 and working as a stock boy and carry-out kid, for my breaks I couldn't wait to buy my quart of chocolate milk and buy my cellophane packaged chocolate brownie. Mmmm, Mmmm, Good! Then, there was the year when the very thought of that made me want to throw up. 2. I once believed as a young boy that I would never want to drink like all my relatives did. Enough said on that one. 3. In college, we were told as we were about to graduate, that as teachers, we'd go into the profession and this, that and the other thing would be the case. I agreed with most of what we were being told. (this is sort of the converse of what you suggested we do) However, the one thing I couldn't buy was that education was full of politics and it would enter our world, one way or another. My immediate knee-jerk reaction was "No way. I will close my door and i will simply teach and enjoy my students and that will be that." I learned soon enough in my career that there was no way to avoid politics in the job. I lost my innocence, I guess.
Ooo, I love this game!
1) Running is torture
2) Adults have everything figured out
3) Cats are evil