Out on a Limb

I never thought of that

The Gauntlet

Thank you to everyone who sends me a comment any way you wish. In a recent post titled The King’s Cut I got a fair number of back-channel direct messages from folks that don’t want to comment directly. My favorites are the ones I get in person! Went for a walk with a friend Jim S the other day and we just started talking about pies and the Norske Nook. Two other people decided that bad predictions might be a topic unto themselves. So I decided to add a feature to my posts (probably occasional to start). I’ll share something and challenge you to disagree, agree or ideally top it! Let the games begin!

1. The best pies I have ever had were from Linn’s Fruit Bin in a small town in Central California named Cambria. Skip the rest of the website (which is EXCELLENT) of all that they offer and go straight to the pies. I particularly remember the Olallieberry, Raspberry-Rhubarb, and Peach Blueberry — it’s up to the rest of you to prove me wrong.

2. The best bad prediction shared with me offline is from a friend John L attributed to Charles H. Duell, the Commissioner of the U.S. patent office in 1899. Mr. Duell's most famous attributed utterance is that "everything that can be invented has been invented." If he had gotten his way, we may have never been blessed with the Chia Pet. Share a bad prediction of your own or someone else.

3. The worst poll ever was mine about tennis. I inadvertently voted for Nintendo tennis and couldn’t figure out how to undo my vote — my audience appears to like Nintendo tennis or not at all — heavy sigh.

Now let’s return to the scheduled programming.

I disagree with Sam Harris on about half of what he talks about. Getting coaxed to think different is fun for me. Probably not for everyone I am afraid. Today my gentle admonition is to consider a different point of view.

Today, I am mailing it in a shorter post.

I am taking a chance and thinking (1) most of you have developed strong opinions about life today (2) Culture, religion, and group belonging all have shaped all of us. I think it is obvious that many of us are not going to change our way of thinking. It is so hard to take risks that could lead to us changing our way of thinking. I think the path of least resistance is to accept cheerfully what we believe today. I think this is the human condition, and ALL OF US are not immune.

So what do I mean by mailing it in? I recently listened to an amazing podcast. What does a guy like me think is amazing? For me, I enjoy it when someone talks through things in a way I never considered. That is today.

One of my favorite podcasts is Sam Harris’ titled “Making Sense”. The episode in question is #288 — The End of Global Order. This is a BIG ASK of casual readers as the episode is REALLY LONG! Usually, when I listen to Sam’s podcast, I listen to the beginning and decide if I am interested. I then just listen in the background or move on. I’m guessing I might listen to one of three to the end.

So what governs what interests me? I guess I am not sure. Judged by the range of what I write about, many of you might wonder about me. However, I know what kind of nonsense I reject. Elon Musk has become the latest darling of many. We are all convinced he is brilliant. I’ve heard people say he’d be a great President. I think his business acumen is impressive but as usual, our hero worship demands we ignore a lot of the details. Here are some of my favorite recent observations about him:

• Elon has ten children. As the numbers increase, so do the list of countries he lists as doomed because of low birth rates. Narcissists DEMAND that we see things their way. Twitter is a place where they get to shout their truisms.

• Over time, Elon has become bolder in his naming approach; Nevada Alexander, Griffin, Vivian, Kai, Saxon, Damian, X, X Æ A-12, Exa Dark Sideræl. Since breaking up with singer Grimes, Musk welcomed twins with one of his business executives, Shivon Zillis. They have not, as yet, revealed the names they have chosen. I am guessing they will not choose Dick & Jane. One of my sons explained to me that X Æ A-12 was an inspired choice of an airplane name that came before the SR-71 Blackbird.

• Elon spends a lot of time admonishing places like Japan, Italy, and China. Each of them is flagged as places where birth rates are below replacement. They are doomed according to the man with the microphone.

• It is a tribute to the range of human behavior to consider a trailblazer for electric cars & rockets to Mars occasionally must remark “Exa Dark Sideræl, be careful, the range is hot!”. Life is rich. I wonder what inspired that name as it doesn’t sound like an airplane.

So what is my take on those worried we aren’t having enough children and societal collapse cannot be far behind? I am the first to say my three sons were among the greatest thing that ever happened to me. Does that mean I nod in agreement with Elon on the crisis he sees over the horizon? I think the SIMPLE ANSWER is hell no. The truth, in my eyes, is that only 15% of the people on the rock live in the first world. The rest we have left behind and fight tooth and nail to prioritize them last. I think that the perhaps 1.5 billion of us lucky enough to have been born in a place like the United States might instead consider changing the plight of the 6.5 billion that don’t have an air conditioner or a garage yet. More succinctly, many of them lack fresh water. Seems to me the urgency to worry that Italians aren’t having enough children is dwarfed by all of the others we’ve managed to block from our view. A shortage of WHAT exactly is he talking about? Specifically, to his so-called point, how about imagining you have sixteen eggs in your refrigerator laid by sixteen different hens. You eat three of them. It is far from an egg crisis. You need not run to the store in your pajamas to replenish. Get a grip on reality! You merely just might be willing to try one of the unfamiliar thirteen eggs that remain. The arrogance to believe that only eggs from the first three hens are worth eating and now you are ‘out of eggs’ is asinine. Lets find those three hens and shame them into squeezing out an extra egg or two. The 280 character limit does not eliminate sensibility.

This feels like a short post. Not much here to comment about. However, the podcast is a different kettle of fish. I am sure that if ANY OF YOU make the click, it will generate a RECORD NUMBER of comments. I challenge you to just listen to the first five minutes. Thereafter, up to you. I think, if you are a reader, you will be tempted to consider Peter Zeihan, Ian Bremmer, or Sam Harris. No matter how often I listen to Sam, there is no crazed shouting. If your taste in media differs, enjoy five minutes of Zen.

If you listen to a bit, a lot of the discussion centers on birth rates.

• I figure that if automation continues on the road it is traveling AND birth rates decline, we might begin to transfer great living standards to the largest percentage of us humans in the history of the planet. It makes me nervous that Elon Musk doesn’t agree with me. However, I defied the urge to name my son “X Æ A-12”.

Time for a poll b/c I think they are cool.

Have a great night. Predicting the future is perilous territory. Luckily there are a bunch of great songs about dreaming. Here’s one I like.